Future Scenarios - Overview

Blue Ocean Ventures

Nov 12, 2024

2 min read

We analysed technology trends (focussing on food production), their development rates, and our ability to mitigate climate change, resulting in four scenarios. These scenarios range from minimal technological progress and failed climate action to significant technological advancements that successfully limit global warming.

Scenario 1: Failed Efforts to Mitigate Climate Change & Limited Technological Progress

This world is characterised by conflict, with large-scale food insecurity stemming from a breakdown in trade. Access to Arctic and Antarctic waters, as well as high-latitude regions, is highly contested.

Scenario 2: Successfully Limiting Global Warming to 1.5-2.4°C & Limited Technological Progress

Other industries manage to create value through technological advancements and/or emissions reductions, or some economies might simply be “just lucky.” A reduction in production yields is offset by decreased export rates, allowing for some functional trade. However, there is a heightened risk of conflict over access to food and migration, which could further impact trade. Access to Arctic and Antarctic waters and high-latitude regions remains contested.

Scenario 3: Failed Efforts to Mitigate Climate Change & Significant Technological Advances in Digital, Biotech, Energy, and Automation

Ownership, control, and access to extreme technologies hold significant value in this scenario. There is a high risk of conflict over technology access and migration, leading to potential trade limitations. Access to Arctic and Antarctic waters and high-latitude areas is also highly contested.

Scenario 4: Successfully Limiting Global Warming to 1.5-2.4°C & Significant Technological Advances in Digital, Biotech, Energy, and Automation

Technology ownership and expertise carry significant value here, particularly regarding ancillary or adaptation technologies. Extreme technologies find their niche, and trade remains functional—exported products can be exchanged for money or other goods.